Global Warming - Revisited

Global Warming - Revisited

I originally published this blog on June 2, 2014.  I revisit today because we are coming upon an international meeting on global warming.   This weeks U.N. Climate  Summit will bring together 120 heads of state  on Tuesday.  The question is  will the nations of the world agree on a path to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change, such as dramatic sea level rise and extreme droughts and storms.  This week's event is not a negotiating session for the next international agreement.  That will happen in December 2015, when signatories of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Control will meet in Paris. 

  

Global Warming:

Global warming refers to the rise in average temperature of the Earth's climate system.  Since the early 20th century, the global air, sea, and surface temperature has increased about 1.4 degrees F.  About two-thirds of the increase has occured since 1980.  Each of the last 3 decades has  been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceeding decade since 1850.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that scientists are 90% sure that global warming is being caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities.   The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in a planet's atmosphere warms its lower atmosphere and surface.   Human activity since the Industrial Revolution (c. 1760 - 1840) has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  Over the last 3 decades gross domestic product and population growth were the main drivers of increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate model projections were summarized in 2007.  Future climate change and associated impact vary from region to region around the globe.  Warming is expected to be strongest in the Arctic with continuing retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice.   Other likely effects include more extreme weather, including heat waves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.  There is a threat to food security from decreasing crop yields and the loss of habitat from inundation.   The year 2012 was the warmest year on record for the U.S.  We were hit hard with heat waves, wildfires, floods, and droughts.  Scientists warn that if we do not address climate change, this is just a taste of what we could expect in the years ahead.  

A majority of Americans say that global warming is happening and the numbers have held relatively steady since the 2000's.  While still a majority, the numbers of Americans who believe in global warming has declined slightly since 2008.   The number of Americans who call global climate change a "major threat" varies by political affiliation:  Republicans - 25% and Democratas - 65%.  Among Americans in recent years other policy issues out-rank global warming as top concerns.  Americans name the economy, jobs, or the deficit as top concerns.  Among environmental concers global warming was last on the list with worries about drinking-water pollution ranking 25 points higher.  This from Gallup poles.  Americans think that climate change will hurt future generations more than current generations. 

So, what do you think?

The National Resources Defense Council recommends a five-step plan to repower, refuel and rebuild America:

1. Set limits on global warming pollution
2. Invest in green jobs and clean energy
3. Drive smarter cars
4. Create green homes and buildings
5. Build better communities and transportation networks.

I think it's a no-brainer.  Regardless of what you think or believe the National Resources Defense Council's recommendations are the way to go.  Everyone can participate.  The recommendations are responsible and doable.  Good will ensue.  We'll all be better for it. 

Islamic State

Islamic State:

The Islamic State was formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS).  It was also known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and Islamic State.  It's hard to turn on the news and not hear about the threat of the Islamic State.  

The Islamic State started as a splinter group of another militant group, al Qaeda.   In 2006 the Islamic State became a separate group under the leadership of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.  He transformed a few terror cells on the verge of extinction into what is considered by many to be the most dangerous militant group in the world.

The aim of the group is to create an Islamic "caliphate" or state across Sunni areas of Iraq and Syria.  It ignores international borders and has a presence from  Syria's Mediterranean coast to south of Baghdad.   It is known for killing dozens at a time, carrying out executions, crucifixions, and other acts.  It has taken over large areas of northern and western Iraq.  It controls hundreds of square miles.  

The Islamic State rules by Sharia law.  Sharia law covers both religious and non-religious aspects of life.  Boys and girls must be separated at school, women must wear the "niqab"or full veil in public.  Music is banned and the fast is enforced during Ramadan.  Sharia courts often dispense brutal justice.  

The Islamic State is well organized militarily and financially.   After Saddam Hussein's military was disbanded former Iraqi soldiers could not serve the new military and so became fighters for ISIS, according to Middle East expert Fawaz Gerges.  Isis has a trained and experienced  fighting force.   The initial strategy for revenue was through extortion and robbery.  Now it generates resources through large scale attacks aimed at capturing and holding territory.  It will use cash reserves from banks, military equipment seized from military and police bases, and the release of fighters from local jails to bolster military and financial capability.  

The Islamic State tries to capture and channel the resentment of the Sunni's.  In both Syria and Iraq it wins favor through "dawa" - organizing  social welfare programs and even recreational activities for children, distributing food and fuel to the needy, and setting up clinics.   The price it demands is enforcement of the strict Sharia code. 

To be sure the Islamic State is a force to be reckoned with.  As it grows in size and strength it will eventually visit it's extremism and terrorism on the West and particularly the  U.S.  President Barack Obama has declared America's intention is to eradicate this militant group.  America plans expanded air strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria and more support for moderate rebels opposed  to the Islamic State.  The Gulf Cooperation Council, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, are being consulted as to whether they would commit their forces to fight the Islamic State.  This is a slippery slope for them as they do not want to alienate their own Sunni populations.  

President Obama has no plans to deploy U.S. combat troops to fight this jihadist militant group.  There is agreement that there is a need for increased training and equipping of the moderate Syrian opposition in order to confront  this extremist group.   The U.S. can't "take the place of Arab partners in securing their region."  I agree with the President.   The militant extremism of elements in the Middle East has been ongoing for hundreds of years.  We cannot nor should we try to end it.  At most we can advise and assist nations in that area to meet these challenges.

What do you think?