Hurricane/Tropical Storm

I originally posted this on 6/11/2013.  I thought you might like seeing it again in view of tropical storm Erika.  Just remember: your friendly local media wants to make sure you always have something to worry about.

Here we are again.  It's hurricane season.  The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1st to November 30th.  This season, 2013, is forecasted  to produce 18 tropical storms with 9 becoming hurricanes, of which 4 will be major hurricanes.  A typical year will have 12 tropical storms with 7 becoming hurricanes.  There is a 72% chance that a major hurricane will strike on the U.S. coastland this year.  For the east coast and Florida it is 48% and for the gulf coast it is 47%.

This year the tropical Atlantic unexpectedly warmed over the last several months  and the chances of El Nino phenomenon are unlikely.  El Nino is associated with strong vertical shear creating conditions less conducive to storm development.  Seventy-eight percent of storms form from August to October.   The last three Atlantic seasons have had 19 storms each season.  In fact over the last 10 seasons only one season was forecast to have an average number of storms.  All the rest have been average to above average or normal to above normal  and above average or above normal.

Forecasts come from meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Gray's team was the first organization to issue forecasts back in 1984.  This is the team's 30th season of hurricane forecasts.  The Weather Channel and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also issue forecasts.   These annual projections are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the season, not an exact measure.  Insurance companies, emergency managers, and news media use the forecasts to prepare Americans for the season's likely threat.

The source of most of the forecasts delivered  on your TV news and smartphones is supercomputers in Reston and Orlando.  An infusion of Hurricane Sandy related dollars this year will help the weather service upgrade two supercomputers that are used in virtually all U.S. weather predictions.

The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as mathematical equations.  The best hurricane forecasting models are "global" models that solve the equations at every point on the globe.  Models that solve these equations are called a "dynamical" models.  The four best hurricane forecast models are ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts), GFDL (NWS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), GFS (Global Forecast System), UKMET (United Kingdom Met Office).  These models take several hours to run on the world's most sophisticated computers.  Even so they have there limitations due to accuracy and availability of data and our incomplete understanding of  the atmosphere.  There are other less sophisticated models than can be run in a shorter period of time.

At the end of the day after all the hype and the TV teasers and the new tracks etc., etc. it has been said that a good forecast is one that is communicated well and leads to good decisions by public officials and the general populace.

You must decide what supplies you will need (food, water, medicine) and procure them.  You must decide what is necessary to prepare the outside of your home  and whether and when to shutter.  There are many checklists available from various sources.  Most TV stations put out an annual hurricane guide which is available at the supermarket.  I got one from my local Community Center.  Some decisions will be made for you, such as when or whether to go to work or send the kids to school..  There may be a curfew.

So, hurricane season presents us with some challenges.  Keep informed.   Get prepared early.  Be that person who having prepared and strengthened himself can be a help to others.  One other thing,  don't watch too much about the storm on the television.  It'll make you crazy.

Discipline by Haircut

Discipline by Haircut

So, you wanna act grown...well, now you can look grown too." was what Russell Frederick posted on the Facebook page for his A-1 Kutz barbershop in Snellville, Georgia.   Frederick offered the "Benjamin Button style" haircut at no charge.  You may remember that Benjamin Button was the main character in a movie about reverse aging that starred Brad Pitt.  

The mother of a ten year old boy took Fredrick up on his offer.  The "after" photos show a boy who looks like a little old man with a pronounced bald spot.  It's toted  as a cure for misbehaving boys, a little bit of shame to get him back on track.   In this particular case it worked.   The ten year old decided he didn't need that kind of trouble again.  

While A-1 Kutz offers the cut for free, it usually doesn't come to that.  One look at the picture of the first recipient of the "old man" cut is enough to do the trick.  That's what I like about it.  Just the prospect of the embarrassment  of the haircut is enough to bring about a change in behavior.  Many punishments diminish in effectiveness with each use.  This story received a lot of attention at a time when parents are at a loss as to how to discipline their children.  Spankings are out,so the haicut is definitely an improvemnet over them.  The hair grows back in a few weeks.   Some have criticized  the technique as publicizing something that should be private.  So, what is appropriate and effective discipline? 

Discipline, at it's core, is training.  We want to train our children to become successful, law abiding adults who make a positive contribution to society.  To accomplish this there are some things that are always in order and effective.

I think the first thing we need to do is give our children a good example.  It is not necessary to say anything.  Just model the behavior you want to see in your child.   The next thing I think we need to 

do is to help our children build a positive self image.   We praise the good that they do.  We discourage what is not good.  It is ok to criticize the act, but never, never criticize the child.   Another technique is to focus on how an inappropriate act makes you feel.  "I feel very embarassed when your grades suffer from lack of effort."  One more very important thing is, when you have to correct behavior, always end on a positive note.  "I know that with some extra attention to your school work, you can bring up those grades.

For most of us parenting a child is the most significant thing we will do.  It behooves us to take the time to do a good job. 

What do you think?

Terror in Paris

Terror in Paris:

Over a period of three days 17 people were killed by militant Islamic extremists.  In the first attack gunman shot dead 12 people at the Paris office of the French satirical magazine "Charlie Hebdo".   The provocative magazine is known for publishing charged cartoons that satirize the Prophet Muhammad, most religions, the pope, and several world leaders.    Four of the magazine's well-known cartoonists, including the editor were among those killed, as well as two police officers.   The next day a French policewoman was gunned down.  On the third day four hostages were killed when terrorists seized a Jewish grocery.   The first attack is believed to be the deadliest attack in France since 1961, when right wingers who wanted to keep Algeria French bombed a train, killing 28 people.  

About 1.5 million people and more than 40 heads of state, including French president Hollande, German chancellor Angela Merkel, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas marched in Paris to show a unified voice in calling for an end to violent extremism, to support freedom of expression and to mourn the victims of the terrorist attacks.  France is deploying 10,000 troops to Jewish schools, synagogues, and other locations.  

Is this Islamic Jihad, the Holy War?   Islamic Jihad has been going on for 1400 years.   Not all members of Islam are extremist.   Only a very small percentage resort to violence and terrorism.  Their aim is to bring the whole world under the Sharia (Islamic) Law.  In my view these extremists are nothing more than criminals using Islamic Jihad as a justification for their crimes. One well-known Muslim writer defines Jihad as "to surrender your properties and yourselves in the path of Allah"; the purpose of which is to "establish prayers, give zakat (alms), command good, and forbid evil."Jihad includes three ideas: the individual Muslim's inner striving to live up to the Law, social action in view of fulfilling Islamic ideals, and military action to protect and extend the Islamic community.  This is not what the extremists are doing. 

These militant extremists are not going anywhere soon.  They have shown their willingness to use their violent and extreme  methods.  It is only a matter of where and when.   The price of freedom is eternal vigilance.  In most cases, including the attack on the office of "Charlie Hebdo",  warning is given before hand.  It is incumbent upon governments to take these warnings seriously and take action.  It is good to be "not afraid", but it is more important to prepared to thwart these attacks. 

What do you think?