About the Covid 19 Pandemic

 

A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious diease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substancial number of people.   A widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people is not a pandemic.Here is a look at some pandemics that have occured over history  They are listed  in order of the number of deaths that occured.  This is a partial list.Deaths:                 Pandemic                                      Year200 million           Black Death (Bubonic Plague)       1347-135156 m                      Smallpox                                         152040-50 m                  Spanish Flu                                     1918-191930-50 m                  Plague of Justinian                           541-54225-35 m                   HIV/AIDS                                       1981-Present12 m                          The Third Plague                           18555 m                             Antonine Plague                            165-1803 m                             17th Century Great Plagues         16001.1 m                           Asian Flu                                      1957-19581 m                              Russian Flu                                   1889-18901 m                              Hong Kong Flu                              1968-19701 m                              Cholera 6 outbreak                        1817-19231 m                               Japanese Smallpox Epidemic        735-737725,000                        Covid 19                                        2019-present600,000                        18th Century Great Plagues           1700200,000                         Swine Flu                                       2009-2010100-150,000           Yellow Fever                                  Late 180011,300                             Ebola                                            2014-2016850                                  MERS                                           2012-present710                                  SARS                                            2002-2003Source:  Visualcapitalist.comBasic Reproduction Number:  How many suseptible people on average each sick person will infect.Measles: 160     Smallpox: 6.0     Rubella: 6.0     Mumps: 4.5     SARS: 3.5Covid 19: 2.5     Ebola: 2.0     Influenza: 1.5     MERS: 0.8
Current Covid 19 Coronavirus Statistics :                           (Source: Worldometers.info/coronavirus)Active Cases:  6,279,391          Closed Cases:  12,293,551          Recovered:  12,568,841Mild Condition Cases:  6,214,379 (99%)  Serious/Critical Cases:  65,012 (1%)Deaths:  724,710 
This is just some data to look at to draw your conclusions about what is going on regarding the Covid19 pandemic.  I invite you to do so.  Based on where Covid 19 stands on these various lists , I conclude that it is not as threatening as we are led to believe.   Incidently , the tools of  social distancing and quarantining were used in Medieval times to fight the black death Bubonic Plague .No one wants to get sick.  It only makes sense to take precautions to avoid being infected especially if one has other pre-existing conditions .   What troubles me the most, is given the realities of this pandemic, why are we shutting down our country?  We did not shut down for what would appear to be worse  scenarios.  What is the real agenda?
PLEASE COMMENT AND SHARE. 

Fake News

Fake News:

Fake news was not a term many people used 18 months ago, but is now seen as a threat to democracy, free debate, and the Western order. 

"Fake News" was named 2017's "word of the year". 

Fake news is a type of yellow journalism or propaganda that consists of deliberate misinformation, or hoaxes spread via traditional print and broadcast news media, or online social media.   Fake news is written and published with the intent to mislead in order to damage an agency, entity, or person and/or gain financially or politically often using sensationalist, dishonest or outright fabricated headlines to increase readership, online sharing, and Internet click revenue.

Claire Wardle of "First Draft News" identifies 7 types of fake news:

1. Satire or Parody - no intention to cause harm, but has the potential to fool.
2. False Connection - when headlines , visuals, or captions don't support the content.
3. Misleading Content - misleading use of information to frame an issue, or individual.
4. False Context - when genuine content is shared with false contextual information.
5. Imposter Content - when genuine sources are impersonated with false made up sources
6. Manipulated Content - when genuine information or imagery is manipulated to deceive, as with a "doctored" photo.
7. Fabricated Content - when new content is 100% false designed to deceive and do harm.

The International Federation of Library Associations and Institutions offers this diagram of how to spot fake news:

 Fake news is not something new or recent.   In the 13th century B.C. Ramses the Great spread lies and propaganda portraying  the Battle of Kadesh as a stunning victory for the Egyptians .  The treaty between the Egyptians and the Hittites reveals the battle was actually a stalemate. 

During Medieval times in 1475 a fake news story in Trent claimed a Jewish community had murdered a 2 and a half year old Christian boy names Simonino.  The story resulted min all the Jews in the city being arrested and tortured.  Fifteen of them were burned at the stake..  Stories of this kind were known as "blood libel".  They claimed that Jews purposely killed Christians and used their blood for religious or ritual purposes.

The point is to be aware and vigilant for instances of fake news.   Don't be easily fooled or led.   It takes effort to be well informed. 

Terrorism in the U.S. 

Terrorism can be defined as the unlawful use of violence and threats to intimidate or coerce, especially against civilians for political purposes.

Terrorism in the U.S. can be traced  back to 1782 when a Pennsylvania militia rounded up and executed 96 unarmed, pacifist Christian Delaware (Lenape) Indians.  

Since then there have been many incidents of terrorism in the U.S.  In some cases no one was killed.  In other cases only one or two people were killed.  In yet other cases many were killed.

 The 1865 assassination of President Abraham Lincoln was considered an act of terrorism.  In Chicago the next year 12 were killed when a bomb was thrown during a labor rally at Haymarket Square.  

Fast forward to 1910 when 21 were killed at a bombing of labor activists in Los Angeles.  In Michigan in 1927 46 were killed in the explosion of a bomb placed in a school followed by a suicide bombing.   In Colorado in 1955 44 were killed in a plane explosion and crash as part of an insurance plot.   In 1960 34 died in another flight bombed as part of an insurance plot. 

In 1967 26 died in Newark, New Jersey and 43 in Detroit, Michigan due to black riots in Los Angeles.   In 1992 in black riots following the not guilty verdict in the trial of 4 policemen for beating a  black offender resulted in 58 deaths.  In 1995 a truck bombing of a federal building causi9ng a partial collapse took 169 lives in Oklahoma.   In 1999 the intentional crash of an airliner off Nantucket Island by the plane's co-pilot   killed 297.   These incidents are a sampling of the acts of terrorism with the largest loss of life.

The September 11, 2001 crashes of two hijacked airliners into the World Trade Center in New York killed 2759 citizens, the largest number of loses in a single event.  That same morning another hijacked airliner crashed into the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia killing 189.   Also that day as passengers tried to regain control of yet another hijacked airliner,  45 lost their lives as the plane crashed in Pennsylvania.

In 2012 in Connecticut a shooter killed his mother, then 20 elementary school children and 6 adults, then himself.
In 2013 two pressure cooker bombs at the Boston Marathon killed 3, including 1 child and injured 183, including 8 children.
In 2016 a shooting attack at an Orlando, Florida nightclub killed 50.

Over the years there have been several types of terrorism:

• Organized KKK violence
• Left-wing extremism and anti-government
• White supremacy
• Antisemitism
• Puerto Rican nationalism
• Palestinian militancy
• Black radicalism
• Right-wing extremism and anti-government
• Anti-abortion violence 
• Islamic extremism

 In current times the concentration of anti-terrorist activities is focused in Islamic extremism.  Organizations such as ISIS and al qaeda are the sworn enemies of the west and have considerate resources to train and direct those who would visit terror on the western world.

In response The U.S. and other western governments have put in place considerable resources to deter, identify, prevent, and respond to these acts of terrorism.  We are learning that suspects of terrorist acts are very often known to authorities. These "Known Wolf" terrorists have been investigated by authorities and let go to later commit terrorist acts.

Here are some examples:

2009

• Carlos Leon Bledsoe - attacked an Arkansas recruiting center killing 2 soldiers.  The FBI interviewed him 4 months before his attack
• Major Nidal Hassan - killed 13 people in a shooting rampage at Fort Hood.  The FBI was aware of Hassan's email correspondence with radical cleric Anwar al-Awlaki
• Umar Farouk Abdulmulallel - attempted to down Norathwest Flight 253 on Christmas Day 2009 with explosives hidden in hasd underwear.  Abdulmulallal father reached out to U.S. officials telling them he was concerned about his son's extremism

2014

• Tamerlan Tsarnev and his brother Dzhokhar, were the perpetrators of the Boston Marathon bombings. Russian Intelligence tipped off the FBI twice about Tamerlan.
• Ali Muhammed Brown killed 4 on a cross country spree.  He as on the FBI watch list at the time of the murders.
• Elton Simpson - was killed in a shoot out with police.  He was known to the FBI for involvement with another cell several years earlier. 

2016

• Mohamed Barry - attacked customers in an Israeli-owned restaurant in Ohio.  He was investigated 4 years prior for making radical comments.
• Omar Mateen - killed 49 in a night club shooting spree in Orlando, Florida.  He was interviewed by the FBI on a number of occasions 3 years prior, but after a 10 month investigation the FBI closed the case. 

Here's what I think:

It would seem to me that it is incumbent upon our anti-terrorism authorities and in particular the FBI to do a more thorough job of monitoring those who come to their attention as possible terrorists.  There are watch lists, and reports of activities that are suspect already in place..  We  need the very best of communications between the various government agencies that deal with possible terrorism.  They need to share their information with other agencies.  

As citizens we need to be vigilant.  We need to watch what is going on around us.  We need to report  any information we have about possible terrorist activity.

Election 2016

Election 2016:

The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election was of special interest to me.  I followed it closely.  I came up with a few conclusions, which I will share. 

First, the facts: 

The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election was the 58th quadrennial American presidential election.  The Republican ticket was comprised of businessman Donald J. Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence.  They defeated the Democratic  ticket of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator Tim Kaine.  Trump is scheduled to take office as the 45th President, and Pence as the 48th Vice President on January 20, 2017. 

Donald Trump's campaign drew on his personal image.  His primary campaign slogan was "Make America Great Again".  He insisted that Washington is broken and can only be fixed by an outsider.  He opposed many free trade deals and military interventionist policies.  He opposed cuts to Medicare and Social Security.  He promised to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. 

Up until the election most media forecasts projected a Trump victory as unlikely.  While Clinton received about 2.9 million more votes, Trump won a decisive victory in the Electoral College winning 30 states with 306 pledged electors out of 538.   In the electoral college 7 electors voted against their pledged candidate, two against Trump and 5 against Clinton.  Trump received 304 electoral  votes while Clinton received 227.  Trump was the 5th person in U.S. history to become president despite losing the popular vote.   He will be the first president without prior experience in public service.

Here's what I think:

The press and the so called insider experts on both sides of the aisle got it wrong.  They thought that Trump could never win.  Yet he did.  They might do well to realize that just wanting it cannot make it so.   

I believe that the media and political insiders do not like Trump because he is not one of them.  He will not follow their rules.  He does not buy into their agenda.  He is not bound by "political correctness".  

I believe the business of the media is to sell newspapers and garner market share on television.  They publish what will do that.  Any resemblance to the truth is purely coincidental.

During the campaign Donald Trump was asked if he would accept the outcome of the election.  He stated he did not know for sure , but he would accept if he won.  It was the Democrats who would not accept the results.  They complained about the Electoral College system.  They talked about electors not voting for their pledged candidates.  All that is past now.  Donald Trump is set to be inaugurated.

So, the bottom line take away for me is simply, I do not believe or trust the media and I do not believe or trust politicians.

What do you think? 

Here We Go Again: Hurricanes

Well,  here we go again, Hurricane season 2016.   We have had a hurricane drought for the last ten years.  No hurricanes. Currently we are watching what is being called "Invest 99L".  It is a tropical wave.  It is not a tropical storm or a hurricane.  It is something for the weather people to investigate and the news people to talk about.

For a more technical discussion of hurricane prediction see the two blogs listed below.

http://wellithoughtaboutthat.blogspot.com/2015/08/hurricanetropical-storm.html

http://wellithoughtaboutthat.blogspot.com/2013/06/hurricane-season.html

I've  been watching hurricanes for over  forty years.  I look for predictions, but I have found it very difficult to find any.  The story is always the same.  This could happen, or that could happen.  It is too early to tell.  They paint themselves gigantic windows of error.  It is always, watch the next update.  It is difficult for me to accept that meteorology gets away with being right only part of the time.

This time the forecasters are in a frenzy.  It has been 10 years since the last storm.  After the storm or possibility of a storm is past, the forecasters will tell you what a great job they did keeping you informed.  They will revel in the increased ratings from viewers trying to keep up with the storm.  They will be holding their collective breathes for recognition by their industry.

It seems to me that no matter how much new technology they get, or how much more data they collect for their models, their prediction is just a guess.  They use mathematical formula's and averages.  At the end of the day they are right about 50% of the time.

It has always been my concern that while forecasters are painting worst case conditions and advising people to stay put, many employers expect their people to report to work.   My advise is  to make preparations for a storm at the beginning of the season and don't obsess about getting a storm.   Have faith that your employer will know when to call off work.  Have faith in yourself.

Zika Virus

The Zika Virus:

Here's what you should know:  

Normally the Zika virus is extremely rare, fewer than 1000 cases in the U.S. per year.  About 1 in 5 people become ill.  The Zika virus cannot be cured, but treatment may help.  It requires a medical diagnosis to confirm a patient has the Zika virus.   Lab tests or imaging are often required.  Zika Virus  is spread by animals or insects and has been spread by sexual contact.  

In most cases the illness is mild and symptoms last less than a week.  There is a possible link between the Zika virus infection in pregnant women and subsequent birth defects. While it has not been confirmed, it is being investigated whether the Zika virus can cause microencephaly, a condition marked by abnormally small sized head size that can result in developmental problems

The most common symptoms of Zika virus are fever, rash, joint pain and red eyes.   There is not vaccine or specific treatment for Zika virus.  Treatment focuses on relieving symptoms and includes rest, rehydrationb, and medications for fever and pain.

Here are travel notices  of areas where the virus is present from the CDC:

Cape Verde

Caribbean Islands:  Barbados, Curacao, Dominican Republic, Guadalupe, Haiti, Jamaica, 

                                  Martinique, Puerto Rico, Saint martin, and U.S. Virgin Islands

Central America:  Costa Rica El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama

Mexico

Pacific Islands:  American Samoa, Tonga

South America:  Bolivia, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay

                            Suriname, Venezuela.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm

I originally posted this on 6/11/2013.  I thought you might like seeing it again in view of tropical storm Erika.  Just remember: your friendly local media wants to make sure you always have something to worry about.

Here we are again.  It's hurricane season.  The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June 1st to November 30th.  This season, 2013, is forecasted  to produce 18 tropical storms with 9 becoming hurricanes, of which 4 will be major hurricanes.  A typical year will have 12 tropical storms with 7 becoming hurricanes.  There is a 72% chance that a major hurricane will strike on the U.S. coastland this year.  For the east coast and Florida it is 48% and for the gulf coast it is 47%.

This year the tropical Atlantic unexpectedly warmed over the last several months  and the chances of El Nino phenomenon are unlikely.  El Nino is associated with strong vertical shear creating conditions less conducive to storm development.  Seventy-eight percent of storms form from August to October.   The last three Atlantic seasons have had 19 storms each season.  In fact over the last 10 seasons only one season was forecast to have an average number of storms.  All the rest have been average to above average or normal to above normal  and above average or above normal.

Forecasts come from meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project. Gray's team was the first organization to issue forecasts back in 1984.  This is the team's 30th season of hurricane forecasts.  The Weather Channel and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also issue forecasts.   These annual projections are intended to provide a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the season, not an exact measure.  Insurance companies, emergency managers, and news media use the forecasts to prepare Americans for the season's likely threat.

The source of most of the forecasts delivered  on your TV news and smartphones is supercomputers in Reston and Orlando.  An infusion of Hurricane Sandy related dollars this year will help the weather service upgrade two supercomputers that are used in virtually all U.S. weather predictions.

The behavior of the atmosphere is governed by physical laws which can be expressed as mathematical equations.  The best hurricane forecasting models are "global" models that solve the equations at every point on the globe.  Models that solve these equations are called a "dynamical" models.  The four best hurricane forecast models are ECMWF (European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts), GFDL (NWS Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), GFS (Global Forecast System), UKMET (United Kingdom Met Office).  These models take several hours to run on the world's most sophisticated computers.  Even so they have there limitations due to accuracy and availability of data and our incomplete understanding of  the atmosphere.  There are other less sophisticated models than can be run in a shorter period of time.

At the end of the day after all the hype and the TV teasers and the new tracks etc., etc. it has been said that a good forecast is one that is communicated well and leads to good decisions by public officials and the general populace.

You must decide what supplies you will need (food, water, medicine) and procure them.  You must decide what is necessary to prepare the outside of your home  and whether and when to shutter.  There are many checklists available from various sources.  Most TV stations put out an annual hurricane guide which is available at the supermarket.  I got one from my local Community Center.  Some decisions will be made for you, such as when or whether to go to work or send the kids to school..  There may be a curfew.

So, hurricane season presents us with some challenges.  Keep informed.   Get prepared early.  Be that person who having prepared and strengthened himself can be a help to others.  One other thing,  don't watch too much about the storm on the television.  It'll make you crazy.