Well, here we go again, Hurricane season 2016. We have had a hurricane drought for the last ten years. No hurricanes. Currently we are watching what is being called "Invest 99L". It is a tropical wave. It is not a tropical storm or a hurricane. It is something for the weather people to investigate and the news people to talk about.
For a more technical discussion of hurricane prediction see the two blogs listed below.
http://wellithoughtaboutthat.blogspot.com/2015/08/hurricanetropical-storm.html
http://wellithoughtaboutthat.blogspot.com/2013/06/hurricane-season.html
I've been watching hurricanes for over forty years. I look for predictions, but I have found it very difficult to find any. The story is always the same. This could happen, or that could happen. It is too early to tell. They paint themselves gigantic windows of error. It is always, watch the next update. It is difficult for me to accept that meteorology gets away with being right only part of the time.
This time the forecasters are in a frenzy. It has been 10 years since the last storm. After the storm or possibility of a storm is past, the forecasters will tell you what a great job they did keeping you informed. They will revel in the increased ratings from viewers trying to keep up with the storm. They will be holding their collective breathes for recognition by their industry.
It seems to me that no matter how much new technology they get, or how much more data they collect for their models, their prediction is just a guess. They use mathematical formula's and averages. At the end of the day they are right about 50% of the time.
It has always been my concern that while forecasters are painting worst case conditions and advising people to stay put, many employers expect their people to report to work. My advise is to make preparations for a storm at the beginning of the season and don't obsess about getting a storm. Have faith that your employer will know when to call off work. Have faith in yourself.
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