Here We Go Again: Hurricanes

Well,  here we go again, Hurricane season 2016.   We have had a hurricane drought for the last ten years.  No hurricanes. Currently we are watching what is being called "Invest 99L".  It is a tropical wave.  It is not a tropical storm or a hurricane.  It is something for the weather people to investigate and the news people to talk about.

For a more technical discussion of hurricane prediction see the two blogs listed below.

http://wellithoughtaboutthat.blogspot.com/2015/08/hurricanetropical-storm.html

http://wellithoughtaboutthat.blogspot.com/2013/06/hurricane-season.html

I've  been watching hurricanes for over  forty years.  I look for predictions, but I have found it very difficult to find any.  The story is always the same.  This could happen, or that could happen.  It is too early to tell.  They paint themselves gigantic windows of error.  It is always, watch the next update.  It is difficult for me to accept that meteorology gets away with being right only part of the time.

This time the forecasters are in a frenzy.  It has been 10 years since the last storm.  After the storm or possibility of a storm is past, the forecasters will tell you what a great job they did keeping you informed.  They will revel in the increased ratings from viewers trying to keep up with the storm.  They will be holding their collective breathes for recognition by their industry.

It seems to me that no matter how much new technology they get, or how much more data they collect for their models, their prediction is just a guess.  They use mathematical formula's and averages.  At the end of the day they are right about 50% of the time.

It has always been my concern that while forecasters are painting worst case conditions and advising people to stay put, many employers expect their people to report to work.   My advise is  to make preparations for a storm at the beginning of the season and don't obsess about getting a storm.   Have faith that your employer will know when to call off work.  Have faith in yourself.

Zika Virus

The Zika Virus:

Here's what you should know:  

Normally the Zika virus is extremely rare, fewer than 1000 cases in the U.S. per year.  About 1 in 5 people become ill.  The Zika virus cannot be cured, but treatment may help.  It requires a medical diagnosis to confirm a patient has the Zika virus.   Lab tests or imaging are often required.  Zika Virus  is spread by animals or insects and has been spread by sexual contact.  

In most cases the illness is mild and symptoms last less than a week.  There is a possible link between the Zika virus infection in pregnant women and subsequent birth defects. While it has not been confirmed, it is being investigated whether the Zika virus can cause microencephaly, a condition marked by abnormally small sized head size that can result in developmental problems

The most common symptoms of Zika virus are fever, rash, joint pain and red eyes.   There is not vaccine or specific treatment for Zika virus.  Treatment focuses on relieving symptoms and includes rest, rehydrationb, and medications for fever and pain.

Here are travel notices  of areas where the virus is present from the CDC:

Cape Verde

Caribbean Islands:  Barbados, Curacao, Dominican Republic, Guadalupe, Haiti, Jamaica, 

                                  Martinique, Puerto Rico, Saint martin, and U.S. Virgin Islands

Central America:  Costa Rica El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama

Mexico

Pacific Islands:  American Samoa, Tonga

South America:  Bolivia, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay

                            Suriname, Venezuela.